A concept model for prioritizing job applications
It’s easy to waste a lot of time and hope applying to unrealistic jobs.
I did just that for the first month of my job search, while in a state of frantic anxiety and LinkedIn-induced FOMO-distraction.
After a personal reset, I came up with a more purposeful approach. Here’s my current concept model for assessing the odds of getting a meaningful first look.
Three caveats:
An underlying assumption is you’re actually a good potential match for the job criteria, and not fooling yourself.
Another assumption: You're outside the rarified tier that can get a look anywhere (and probably don't even need to apply in the first place).
I'm writing from a tech-world perspective; for other industries, YMMV.
Have a Referral-Willing Connection ➞ Odds: Plausible
For a typical job, having a referral-willing connection at the company is the best chance at a meaningful application review.
This could be someone you know directly (a 1st-degree connection, in LinkedIn parlance) who's willing to refer you (formally or informally); or someone who knows someone you know directly (2nd-degree connection), and both of them are willing to refer you.
This is probably an evergreen truth, but particularly the case when job-seekers vastly exceed available positions and/or recruiter bandwidth (i.e., the current tech-world sitch).
The biggest caveat here is companies/organizations where referrals aren't really a thing for normal applicants.
Have a Relevant Pool-Narrowing Factor ➞ Odds: Mid to Long Shot
The next best chance is jobs where you match a dimension that significantly narrows the candidate pool. Pool-Narrowing Factors include:
Company geography: In-office or hybrid roles will have narrower pools; it also may be easier to find connections at local companies.
Company size: Small companies tend to be more human, so may be more likely to actually read applications. (On the other hand, they may have ultra-low bandwidth.)
Specific skillset / experience: It’s a long shot to find roles where you have a meaningfully niche skill or experience, but doing so may increase your chances to mid shot.
All Other Jobs and Scenarios ➞ Odds: Lotto Ticket
In every other scenario, I assume the default odds are infinitesimal.